Investimento estrangeiro forte em setembro

Credit Suisse  25/10/2013

Foreign investment in fixed-income securities still very strong in September

Overview: The current-account deficit was $2.6bn in September, much lower than the deficit of the previous months and similar to that of September 2012. September’s lower current-account deficit was mainly due to a higher trade surplus and a net inflow of     remittances of profits and dividends, the first net inflow since January 2000. The current-account deficit in rolling 12-month terms remained stable at 3.6% of GDP ($80.5bn) in September 2013. Foreign direct investments (FDI) totaled $4.8bn in September, in line with our forecast and very similar to the  monthly average so far this year. In cumulative 12-month terms, FDI increased to $61.5bn, reducing the gap to the current-account     deficit. Foreign investment in fixed-income securities totaled $7.2bn in September and $25bn from the date the Tax on Financial Transactions (IOF) on these investments was removed (June 4) through October 23 (latest data available).  We expect the current-account deficit to stabilize at around 3.6% of GDP until the end of the year. We forecast that the rolling 12-month FDI will increase to $65bn by  the end of the year, owing mainly to the payment for oil exploration concessions. The figures already available for October suggest that FDI will be significant for the month and that there will be a deceleration  in portfolio investments.

Foreign direct investments (FDI) totaled $4.8bn in September, higher than the inflows of $3.8bn in August and $4.4bn in September 2012. The result was in line with our forecast and the median market consensus. In cumulative 12-month terms, FDI rose from $61.1bn in August to $61.5bn in September (Exhibit 3). The FDI breakdown for September shows that intercompany loans posted a deficit of $0.3bn. Thus, FDI in equity capital ($5.1bn) accounts for all FDI inflows into the country in September. Each transaction for FDI in equity capital amounted to $0.5bn or less in September. The Central Bank of Brazil expects FDI of $5.2bn in October, given that the result through October 23 totaled $4.2bn.

Foreign portfolio investments (in equities and fixed-income securities traded in Brazil) posted a net inflow of $9.5bn in September, versus an inflow of $6.2bn in August and an outflow of $0.5bn in September 2012. Investments in equities accounted for an inflow of $2.2bn last month. Net inflows into fixed-income securities traded in Brazil posted a surplus of $7.2bn in September and $24.9bn from the withdrawal of the IOF levy on June 4 through 23 October. In 12-month terms, foreign portfolio investments rose from $31.2bn in August to $41.1bn in September. According to the Central Bank of Brazil, foreign investment into fixed income securities totaled $0.9bn in October through 23, and there was an outflow of $0.3bn in equities in the same period.

Déficit em conta corrente em setembro é o dobro do previsto pelo BC

 

Por Alex Ribeiro e Eduardo Campos | Valor 25/10

 

BRASÍLIA - O Brasil registrou, em setembro, déficit de US$ 2,629 bilhões em suas transações correntes com outros países, conta que já acumula saldo negativo de US$ 60,416 bilhões desde o início do ano, informou nesta sexta-feira o Banco Central (BC).
O déficit previsto pelo próprio BC era de US$ 1,3 bilhão. Para o ano, a previsão é de conta negativa em US$ 75 bilhões.
Em 12 meses, a diferença entre o que país gastou e o que recebeu nas transações internacionais relativas a comércio, serviços, rendas e transferências unilaterais alcançou US$ 80,507 bilhões, o equivalente a 3,6% do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) estimado pela autoridade monetária para o mesmo período.
Ainda em setembro, o Brasil registrou déficit de US$ 1,224 bilhão no balanço de pagamentos em setembro. No mesmo mês de 2012, havia registrado leve superávit, de US$ 84 milhões.
Apesar do resultado negativo de setembro, nos dados acumulados no ano de janeiro a setembro, o balanço de pagamentos segue superavitário, em US$ 2,313 bilhões. Em igual período do ano passado, porém, o superávit era bem maior, em US$ 22,964 bilhões.
O déficit no balanço de pagamentos em setembro é resultado de um déficit de US$ 2,629 bilhões na conta corrente, que não foi integralmente coberto pelos ingressos líquidos na conta capital e financeira, de US$ 1,506 bilhão no mês.

(Alex Ribeiro e Eduardo Campos | Valor)